"Syria and the Arab 'Spring'"
Written by John Claborn (English)
“Whither Syria?,” the title of this talk, shows us how precarious the situation in Syria is – from day to day, week to week, month to month, we don’t know whether the Assad regime will stand or fall. Of course, most Americans—and perhaps western academics as well—know Syria as a country that borders Iraq and supported insurgents against U. S. forces. Thankfully, Landis’s talk was accessible for those without much knowledge about the Middle East.
Landis’s talk was introduced by Illinois historian Kenneth Cuno, who highlighted Landis’s recent appearances on shows such as Democracy Now! and Charlie Rose. Landis also writes “Syria Comment,” a blog on the topic.
Landis organized his lecture around four problems or questions: why is the Assad regime “doomed”? What are the strengths of the regime? What are the weaknesses of the opposition? What is the economic and regional context for these events?
Giving us some history on the Assad rule, Landis pointed out that minoritarian regimes are not unusual in the Levant (e.g. the Jews in 1940s Palestine, the Christians in Lebanon, the Sunnis in Iraq), but Syria stands as the last minoritarian regime in the region. Though they dominate the current government, Alawite Muslims comprise only 12% of the population, while Sunni Muslims over 70%. The Ba’athist Assad regime maintained power by keeping their sons as military officers, instead of sending them abroad for education. Class also played a role, fueling a dynamic between the rural poor who supported overthrowing the regime and the urban upper class who were made nervous by disruption.
Most of the questions revolved around U. S. intervention in Syria. We went into Libya under certain circumstances, plus an unstable Syria weakens Iraq. Why doesn’t the U.S. intervene? Perhaps this is because the U. S. sees the conflict as a civil war, but more likely U.S. non-intervention just highlights the inconsistency of foreign policy. Syria, Landis was pointed out, is Russia’s strongest ally in the Middle East—perhaps another reason not to intervene.